ABOUT THIS ISSUE
This release contains projections of the number of households, families and living arrangement types for 2011-2036. The projections are not intended as predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if the assumptions about future living arrangements of Australia's population were to prevail over the projection period.
Three assumption series are referred to, which are informed by data from the past four Censuses - series I (no change in living arrangement propensity), series II (historical trend gradually plateauing) and series III (historical trend continuing). For more information on the assumptions, see Section 2. These projections are not forecasts or predictions. Non-demographic factors such as economic conditions may affect future household and family formation, but have not been explicitly taken into account in these projections.
In this release, the population is assumed to increase according to the Series B projection of Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0). It is important to recognise that this future population is also based on a range of assumptions about future fertility rates, mortality rates and levels of migration. The impact of using a different underlying population projection is explored in Section 9 - What If . . .
The base population used for the projections is the 30 June 2011 estimate of 22.3 million people, disaggregated by living arrangement type as determined using the 2011 Census of Population and Housing (Census). The series B projection reaches 32.4 million people by 2036.
These projections supersede the 2006 Census-based series published in June 2010 in Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 (cat. no. 3236.0).
Four Microsoft Excel data cubes are attached to this issue (available from the Downloads tab). These contain projected numbers of households, families, and persons by living arrangement for Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state, for each year from 2011 to 2036, and living arrangement propensities for Australia for the 1996 to 2011 Censuses. Also attached is a SuperTABLE data cube containing projected numbers of persons by living arrangement by 5-year age group, for 2011 to 2036.
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070. The ABS Privacy Policy outlines how the ABS will handle any personal information that you provide to the ABS.
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